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Markets remain in high spirits, with increasing confidence in a Fed rate cut in September. But elsewhere the backdrop is far from certain, with political risks rising in the US and Europe and a great deal riding on the second quarter earnings season.

Unexpected election results in India, Mexico and South Africa temporarily shook markets. In India, Narendra Modi secured a third term, but lost his parliamentary majority.

So far, 2024 has proved a little more complicated than markets were expecting. Jay Powell, chair of the US Federal Reserve warned consistently that US rates could stay ‘higher for longer’, and indeed they have, but elsewhere rate cuts could be imminent.